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JPMorgan Chase & Co. has shifted its stance on US stocks, now adopting a positive outlook for the S&P 500, projecting an advance in 2025. This change follows the departure of Marko Kolanovic, who had maintained a bearish view since late 2022, keeping the index target at 4,200 even as it surpassed 6,000 in 2023.
Swiss investors remain largely indifferent to President Trump's influence on the stock market, focusing instead on the robust performance of US companies, which are thriving globally. However, share prices may face pressure due to inflated valuations and external factors like AI spending and interest rate changes in Japan, rather than Trump's policies. Investors with a long-term perspective can weather market fluctuations by diversifying their portfolios.
Bitcoin is on the rise again, approaching the $100,000 mark after a significant downturn, marking its longest losing streak since the 2016 election. The cryptocurrency has surged approximately 40% since then, fueled by expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment under the current administration. Recently, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $98,943 before experiencing a slight decline, but it remains over double its value from earlier this year.
The Hungarian forint fell to a two-year low, trading 0.7% lower at around 413.2 per euro, as uncertainty looms over Prime Minister Viktor Orban's upcoming decision on the next central bank governor. In contrast, the Polish zloty and Czech koruna remained stable.
Poland's deputy central bank chief, Marta Kightley, indicated that the country has limited capacity for significant interest rate cuts in 2025 due to rising wages and consumer prices fueling inflation, alongside accelerating economic growth. This marks a shift from the previous year when the central bank reduced the benchmark rate by 100 basis points to 5.75%.
The US economy grew at a solid 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by a 3.5% increase in consumer spending, the highest this year. However, trade figures negatively impacted growth, with net exports subtracting 0.57 percentage points. Despite ongoing inflation and high borrowing costs, business investment in research and development saw an upward revision, reflecting the resilience of the economic expansion.
A senior Turkish central banker indicated that the country anticipates fewer interventions in the foreign-exchange market as inflation slows. During meetings in London, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay expressed optimism that improving inflation and financial stability metrics will allow for a less interventionist currency regime.
US economic data is under scrutiny as tensions rise ahead of consumer price reports, with recent Fed minutes revealing internal disagreements on interest rate cuts. GfK consumer confidence has declined to -23.3, while US GDP grew by 2.8% in Q3. Attention will shift to German and European inflation rates later this week, with the ECB set to review its monetary policy on December 12.
Inflation rose to 2.3% annually in October, aligning with expectations, as the Federal Reserve assesses interest rate adjustments. Core inflation increased to 2.8%, driven by a 0.4% rise in services prices, while consumer spending remained solid with a 0.4% monthly increase in expenditures. Despite a significant decline from peak levels, inflation continues to challenge households, particularly those with lower incomes.
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in October, with a 0.3% increase from the previous month. This uptick, influenced by higher stock prices, contributes to the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate reductions.
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